Everything you need to know about Tesla’s Robotaxi.

Source | Silicon-based Research Laboratory

文 | kiki Xie Hao

What does the Robotaxi look like at its debut?

Tesla shared rental car app UI interface Image source: Tesla financial report

Another aspect worth paying attention to in the press conference is Tesla's software capability - that is, whether the progress of FSD (Full Self-Driving) can keep up with the progress of manufacturing. According to foreign media forecasts, Tesla is highly likely to demonstrate the latest or higher version of the FSD system and showcase the driving demonstration of self-driving taxis on closed routes during the press conference.

Analyst Bernstein pointed out that Level 4 autonomous driving is a clear prerequisite for true robot taxi services, while Tesla's current Full Self-Driving (FSD) service is still at Level 2+.

As of now, the latest Full Self-Driving (FSD) version released by Tesla is V12.5.4 on September 23rd. This version includes the feature of Smart Summon, which allows users to summon the vehicle to them or to a nearby selected area using their phone. However, the FSD system is currently only available in the United States and Canada. In September this year, the Tesla team revealed that they plan to launch the FSD system in China and Europe in the first quarter of next year, but the specific rollout timing will depend on regulatory approval.

Since announcing the termination of cooperation with Mobileye in 2016, Musk and Tesla have embarked on a path of completely self-developed FSD. From its inception to the launch of FSD V12 in 2024 and its large-scale deployment in North America, Tesla has gradually shaped the core advantage of the FSD "end-to-end" technology route through its "no high-definition map + pure vision scheme" and years of investment in computing power and data. NVIDIA's Vice President and Head of Automotive Business, Wu Xinzhou, once commented: "The greatest contribution of Tesla FSD is to drive the industry to make breakthrough developments and raise the ceiling."

(End-to-end: Refers to the process from the input of information from sensors to the final input of results. There is no need for manual intervention at the intermediate level, as the system operates and learns on its own. Intelligent driving can understand complex road conditions like an experienced driver.)

In other words, the external expectations for Tesla's Robotaxi lie in the flywheel effect generated by the synergy of hardware and software – the software capability of FSD working in concert with the upcoming Robotaxi endpoint, combined with Tesla's advantages, to drive commercial deployment.

As of the second quarter of this year, the total mileage of FSD has exceeded 1.6 billion miles, equivalent to 25.75 billion kilometers. With the assistance of the latest "end-to-end" FSD version 12, cars have traveled over 600 million miles, equivalent to 9.66 billion kilometers. According to Elon Musk's previous estimate, Tesla's FSD testing mileage needs to reach 6 billion miles to meet the requirements of global regulatory agencies.

The event theme "We, Robot" hints that Musk may provide updates on the progress of the next generation Optimus.

In August 2023, after two and a half years of practice, the Optimus Gen2, featuring a completely new industrial design exterior and technology, was launched.

In the official videos after this, Musk straightforwardly displayed the progress of the second-generation version compared to the first generation, including but not limited to:

Walking speed increased by 30%, weight reduced by 10 kilograms, human foot geometry shape, faster speed, 11-DoF new dual hands...

Elon Musk praised Optimus on social media. Source: X@Elon Musk.

With such attention and high demands, it is not surprising that the Optimus project has made rapid progress. According to the latest news, the all-new generation Optimus Gen3 may bring breakthroughs in precision and communication capabilities at the technical level. It is expected to not only be able to play the piano but also potentially engage in simple communication exchanges.

However, for conservative individuals who always harbor distrust towards technology and artificial intelligence, the iteration of Optimus Gen3 will not deepen people's association with the "mechanical crisis."

On one hand, as a senior sci-fi fan himself, Musk has always maintained a high level of concern and vigilance regarding ethical issues related to human-machine interactions.

On the other hand, even if progress has been made at the technical level, for Optimus to scale up its takeover of human work, it still needs to address a series of specific issues such as production efficiency and adaptability.

"The introduction of Robotaxi will bring a market value growth of $5 to $10 trillion to the company. Coupled with the contribution of the humanoid robot Optimus, Tesla's total market value will ultimately reach 10 times that of Apple's current value, exceeding $30 trillion."

At this year's shareholder meeting, Musk drew a blueprint in which he believed that the two major business sectors mentioned above are not to continue a new chapter for the masterpiece of Tesla, but to "write a new book that has never been seen before."

However, in addition to a bright prospect and an optimistic spirit, Musk actually has nothing in his hands to fulfill the above promises.

Excluding Optimus, which still has a lot of uncertainties, the visible process of commercializing Robotaxi will pose challenges for Musk from various dimensions such as government, technology, cost, operation and service, market acceptance, etc.

At the government level, Bernstein's report indicates that Tesla lags behind competitors in regulatory approval. Currently, the company has not conducted any autonomous driving tests, while Google's Waymo, has been conducting them since 2017.

Not only that, at the technical level, Tesla's self-driving solution without the installation of LiDAR is helping them lead in cost competitiveness over their competitors, but it has also slowed down the progress of artificial intelligence training. Wu Xinzhou also mentioned that although FSD has raised the upper limit, "the issue with the lower limit has not been completely resolved, there are still logical errors in the FSD, facing the complex traffic conditions in China, there is still a lot of work to be done behind it."

Many experts predict that the issue of autonomous driving will become a major burden on Tesla's road ahead.

Prominent technology industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo stated that Tesla's Robotaxi is not expected to enter mass production until at least the first quarter of 2027. The reason for such slow progress in mass production is not related to the hardware design and manufacturing capabilities of the vehicle itself, but entirely due to Tesla's development progress in autonomous driving technology.

More importantly, the United States is not prepared for any type of large-scale robot taxi network. While about 10 states are conducting robot taxi testing and pilot projects, there are no real comprehensive federal regulations in place.

Based on the above reasons, many analysts believe that the prospects brought by Robotaxi may be greatly overestimated compared to Tesla's new energy vehicles and humanoid robot business.

However, these external opinions still cannot affect Musk's determination and attitude for now.

Elon Musk once said, "When it comes to autonomous driving, we are all in," which represents Tesla's long-term ambition.

So far this year, both Chinese and American companies have accelerated the pace of the implementation of Robotaxi. Whether it is Baidu's "Apollo Go," Uber's strategic partnership with Avride, or Google's Waymo announcement of its autonomous ride-hailing service opening to the public in Austin, Texas, the competition in the Robotaxi sector is still intensifying.

Musk will either deliver a perfect answer sheet that matches the high expectations people have had for years, or pour cold water on them. We will find out in the upcoming press conference.

Reference materials:

1. Dongxing Securities: Automobile Industry: Tesla's FSD Evolution Road - Deep Dive Report Series on Intelligent Driving Industry Part One

Open Source Securities: Intelligent Vehicle Series Deep Dive (20): The transportation revolution is coming, the future of Robotaxis is already here.

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